shadow stats australia

There Is No V-Shaped Recovery ShadowStats.com (@shadowstats) / Twitter Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats Outlook, Background Information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for publicly available Special Reports and contact information. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Having largely nonfunctional Executive and Congressional branches of the U.S. Government does little to help stabilize the domestic Economy or Inflation. 1461 soon. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Best Wishes -- John Williams. A prospering shadow economy makes official statistics (on unemployment, official labor force, income, consumption) unreliable. He received an A.B. Announced FOMC policies are little more than jawboning and targeted financial-market hype, until put into actual full effect. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses ShadowStats publishes "alternate" measures of inflation and pretends to do so by employing the methods the statistics bureau used to employ, that is, by ignoring the fact that we consume . Consider that where latest headline 4q2022 GDP was up by an increasingly tepid 0.88%, and by 5.04% against its Pre-Pandemic level, the ShadowStats Alternate was down by 1.16% (-1.16%) year-to year, and down by 1.22% (-1.33%) against its Pre-Pandemic level. April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) Informal Economy Sizes. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation . "John Williams Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. March 2023 New Residential Construction continued in statistically significant annual year-to-year collapse for both Building Permits and Housing Starts. An old friendthe late-Doug Gillespieasked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics. Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.] Separately, circumstances are exacerbated directly, at present, by spiking, weekly gasoline prices, as seen through the week of April 17th. Consider that where latest headline 4q2022 GDP was up by an increasingly tepid 0.88%, and by 5.04% against its Pre-Pandemic level, the ShadowStats Alternate was down by 1.16% (-1.16%) year-to year, and down by 1.22% (-1.33%) against its Pre-Pandemic level. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. (10) April 14th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Fed, ShadowStats) [See the Opening Comments on the April 24th annual benchmark revisions to Retail Sales, which continue to show flat to negative annual contractions and quarterly contractions, net of inflation.] Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. Thereafter, an Expansion is in place until the next formal Peak, which, the NBER does time. Current employment/ economic conditions will be assessed and reviewed shortly in the pending No. Shadow Cloud Gaming: What You Need to Know | Tom's Guide in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. The aggregate Monetary Base often moves broadly on a parallel basis with the Money Supply, but it also can vary widely with the Money Supply, tied to the dominance of its movements triggered by Bank Reserves held by Federal Reserve Banks. Shadow 200 RQ-7 Tactical Unmanned Aircraft System - Army Technology -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. Shadowstats primarily focuses on inflation, but also keeps track of the money supply, unemploymentand GDPby utilizing methodologies abandoned by previous administrations from the Clinton era to the Great Depression. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. -- Contrary to the happy political and financial media hype, the Pandemic-driven and FOMC-exacerbated U.S. Economic Collapse continues to harden in protracted non-Recovery, amidst mounting evidence of renewed Economic Downturn and recent excessive Inflation, which is about to re-accelerate, and still vulnerable to evolving Russia-Ukraine War risks, seriously conflicted FOMC monetary policies, and extraordinarily dangerous Administration fiscal activity. Here are the results. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. 1461. the Plunge Protection Team), or as otherwise being gamed by the Federal Reserve. S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -(April 25th) Coverage of the March 2023 Money Supply and March 2023 Monetary Base follows in the MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE Section, subsequent to this FOMC Section. Accordingly, the FOMCs near-term financial-market policy conundrum of creating Money Supply to support the financial system, while trying to kill inflation at the same time, has no happy resolution. The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures, specifically in Basic M1, saw March 2023 relative liquidity at a new 53-year high (Basic M1/M2) of 35.0%, since September 1970. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. Walter J. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months. [April 9th]. The Employment series is based on actual Payroll Taxes paid by Employers, as opposed to irregular (Pandemic-induced, telephone-only) impaired surveys of the Public as to Unemployment. 1461. Under current policy and based on this reports assumptions, it is projected to reach 701 percent by 2096. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in the Subscriber-only e-mails and No. Consider that March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [Checking Accounts]) gained anew, month-to-month, still holding at 120.5% above, albeit somewhat shy of the peak 122.5% above its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic level. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. ShadowStats' John Williams: Why inflation now is really 13.5% - KITCO In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment Confirmed a Still-Ravaged Economy on Par With the Great Depression (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. ET]. Ukraine Latest: War Casts Shadow Over Votes in Bulgaria, Finland. Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse Unlike the Money Supply at present, even before the onset of Tapering and Balance Sheet Reduction, the Monetary Base was and is not close to record annual growth levels, previously seen during the 2007-2008 Banking System Collapse of the Great Recession, which at the time exploded Reserve Balances (up 5,000 percent year-to-year, but never reversed much in parallel in a post-Crisis movement). Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 (10) April 14th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Fed, ShadowStats) [See the Opening Comments on the April 24th annual benchmark revisions to Retail Sales, which continue to show flat to negative annual contractions and quarterly contractions, net of inflation.] -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Where Pandemic Forced the Shutdown of the U.S. Economy in March 2020, FOMC Rate Hikes Already Had Strangled Business Activity Data source: Quarterly Informal Economy Survey (QIES) by World Economics, London. On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%, Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, Some Biographical & Additional Background Information. Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .]. January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). December 2020 Cass Freight Index Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Economy Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. The ShadowStats-Alternate Consumer Inflation Measures were created by reverse-engineering the CPI-U-RS series, and adding in estimates of the inflation effects of factors not otherwise estimated by the BLS, such as more-frequent (two-years versus ten-years) reweighting of the CPI series. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. In the past, there have been various estimates of the economic impact and the size of shadow economy in Australia by organisations such as the Black Economy Taskforce External Link and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

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